This paper uses data from the 1999 NLTCS and NHIS surveys to compute Long Term Care (LTC) prevalence rates. We develop several triggers, evaluate a test of cognitive ability, and compute prevalence rates for each trigger. We develop a model to compute LTC incidence rates based on the prevalence data. We find that incidence is a strictly increasing function of age and that there is a sharp increase in incidence rates starting at age ninety.